MilitaryHey Reddit, I'm COL Steve Warren, spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve (the military counter-ISIL coalition), AMA!
May 6th 2016 by OIRSpox • 27 Questions • 1209 Points
Hey Reddit, this is COL Steve Warren from Baghdad, Iraq. I am the spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led counter-ISIL military coalition. Our 66-nation coalition is working with our partners in Iraq and Syria to defeat ISIL/ISIS/Da’esh.
I’ll be answering your questions for an hour today, May 6th from 8:00pm to 9:00pm local time in Baghdad (1:00pm to 2:00pm Eastern). Ask me anything!
I hope I can answer all of your questions but please remember that in military operations some secrecy is necessary. Our enemy is watching and they would very much like to know what we are planning and how we will fight them. This is information I will not let them have.
If you’d like to receive updates about Operation Inherent Resolve after this AMA, follow me on Twitter @OIRSpox.
/Edit: Hey Reddit, this has been a terrific 100 minutes. Your questions were thoughtful, intelligent, and I hope I was able to provide quality answers. We're shutting down for the night-- it's almost 10pm here in Baghdad. We'll chip away at some of these other questions in the coming days.
However, I do have one major disappointment: no one asked me about ducks, horses, or horse sized ducks. So here's the answer in case you were wondering: Between duck sized horses or horse sized ducks, I'd want to face duck sized horses. They wouldn't be able to fly so you could punt them like footballs. A hundred isn't really that many so I don't think you'd even break much of a sweat booting them all.
What do you see as the center of gravity for ISIS in the context of OIR? Thanks for your response!
We believe their military centers of gravity are in Mosul and Raqqah. When these cities fall, it will be the beginning of the end for ISIL. That said, their ideological center of gravity is the existence of their so called “caliphate” and their conviction that their “mission” is to bring about the end of days. Their ideological center of gravity is difficult to fight. Their military center of gravity, while challenging, is a nut that we can crack. It’s not a question of “if” these cities will fall. It’s only a question of “when” and “who.”
Before I begin my questions, I'll post this map for reference.
1) Would you recommend that the SDF take Raqqa?
2) Would you also prefer they relieve the besieged SAA pocket in Deir ezzor?
3) Will the SDF eventually attempt to link up with the New Syrian Army? (rebel area in rural Damascus area).
4) Will a small US group like Charlie Keating's help with the Battle of Mosul?
5) Are you interested in some cooperation with Syrian government forces in the fight against ISIS?
1) Would you recommend that the SDF take Raqqa? Raqqa has got to be liberated. I don't think it's a good idea for Kurds to go that far south. The SDF is majority Kurd (60%), but it is a multi-ethnic outfit. So our challenge is to get the appropriate mix of forces into play. That's what our 300 operators are trying to do. 2) Would you also prefer they relieve the besieged SAA pocket in Deir ezzor? Tough call on Deir ezzor. Obviously we want it free of Da'esh, and of course we would prefer the SDF do the freeing, but that's a long row to hoe. Remains to be seen if they can do it. 3) Will the SDF eventually attempt to link up with the New Syrian Army? (rebel area in rural Damascus area). I don't see any scenario that gets the SDF that far south. 4) Will a small US group like Charlie Keating's help with the Battle of Mosul? Let me start with this: Charlie Keating is an American hero, as is every other American who has bled in this land. We are not the lead force here but we have been clear that if the Iraqi government needs our help we will provide it. I know this is a little bit vague, but I don't want to telegraph our punches. 5) Are you interested in some cooperation with Syrian government forces in the fight against ISIS? Our policy is that we will not work with the Assad regime. First things first: the only way to end the Syrian civil war, in our view, is for Assad to transition out of power...
The SDF in Northeastern Syria have been supplied with technology to provide targets to the CTJF-OIR planes to increase the effectiveness of the airstrikes targeting ISIS there.
Have the rebels in Northern Aleppo fighting ISIS been provided with similar technology?
Have the recent problems between the rebels and the SDF in Northern Aleppo affected the support that the CTJF-OIR has provided both groups.
Does CTJF-OIR apply pressure to try to prevent such actions from recurring as it reduces the groups effectiveness against ISIS?
We have not provided the rebels in Northern Aleppo with similar technology. The recent problems between the rebels and the SDF in Northern Aleppo concern us. That said, the friction has not affected the support that we are providing them. Of course we apply pressure to try to prevent such actions from occurring. The recent display of dead bodies by one group was deplorable, and leaders from all corners of this conflict condemned it.
Has the U.S. applied pressure on the YPG to slow their advance on Manbij due to Turkish concerns?
Yes. Both the YPG and the Turks have legitimate concerns. We devote much energy to working through these issues and deconflicting competing interests.
It appears the Vetted Syrian Opposition is struggling to capture territory from Daesh despite coalition air support and Turkish artillery support. It seems to me that the most effective and more influential opposition groups in Syria are extremists. So my questions are, what is the long term plan for Syria? Will there be a shift in strategy due to the lack of moderate effective ground troops, or will the US and its partners push for better training and equipment for the Vetted Opposition? It seems the US wants to focus on fighting Daesh. After the defeat of Deash, will the US work to compromise with the Assad government, or will it pursue a policy of fighting his government? How can the latter be achieved considering Assad holds major population centers and has the support of Russia?
I understand these are sensitive/difficult questions, and I understand if they can't all be answered. I follow the conflict, but obviously don't have the knowledge you do, so feel free to correct me if my assessment is incorrect.
Your assessment is astute. VSOs have had trouble holding territory that they've captured in the Northwest. That said, they've been resilient. When they get kicked out of a town, the regroup and fight another day. They've had more success holding territory they've captured in the East (Shaddadi).
We are pushing to see better training of the moderate groups. As you know, we've sent up to 300 Special Forces in there. SecDef Carter has said that he's looking for ways to accelerate the campaign.
After the defeat of Da'esh we all know that there's got to be an end to the Syrian Civil War. As you know, our policy is that we do not see a future that includes Assad. I don't know how the latter can be achieved. The Secretary of State has been to Geneva several times, and that's really something for the diplomats and the politicians to work out.
/edited for grammar
For people on the sidelines, there have been a few moments of levity in an otherwise grave situation in Syria and Iraq over the past few years. We've seen gang bangers from L.A., an IS car bomb explode in mid air, Syrian soldiers dancing to Usher, and recently the legend that is Abu Hajjar among others.
Have you been able to enjoy the lighter moments of this war or does your position and closeness to it prevent you? If so, what's your favorite?
This is a serious business, but we can't take ourselves too seriously. I got a good laugh out of this.
COL Warren, can you describe how cyber operations are figuring in with Inherent Resolve?
The first rule of cyber operations: never talk about cyber operations. The second rule of cyber operations: never talk about cyber operations.
What Russian strategy? If they send it to me I'll be happy to comment on it.
Good afternoon Colonel. What exactly are the goals of our forces currently involved in Iraq?
Our primary goal is to defeat Da'esh. We've got four flavors of troops here in Iraq.
Advisers- These guys are helping the Iraqis figure out their plans and sort out their logistics. Petty Officer Keating who lost his life here on Tuesday was an adviser.
Trainers- These forces are teaching the Iraqis everything from infantry basics to communication, engineering, medical, and counter IED.
Enablers- This is the support staff (me for example) that provides command and control as well as situational awareness of the battlefield.
Force Protection- These guys protect everyone doing one through three.
How do you feel about a no fly zone in Syria and do you have any references or literature to back up your position? Thank you so much for your response!
A no fly zone in Syria has been looked at by two Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (General Marty Dempsey, General Joe Dunford), both have said in Congressional testimony that they do not see military benefits in a no fly zone. Two of the more important reasons are: 1. ISIL doesn’t have an air force. 2. Enforcement of the no fly zone would be resource intensive with little benefit towards the counter-ISIL mission set.
How is the Shia militia on Sunni retribution being mitigated?
There’s a long way to go. These groups have been at each other’s throats for years. There is too much animosity. This is more than an Iraq problem by the way—it’s a regional problem. For now, we are working with Sunni groups to provide stability in Sunni lands and Shia groups to provide stability in Shia lands, but this is only a short term fix. We know that political reconciliation has to progress here in Iraq if there’s to be a real lasting peace. This is something that the Iraqis have to work through. We do what we can to help bring these groups together, but this is a problem that only they can solve.
ISIL is a proto-state and a semi-conventional army. This poses both challenges and opportunities. Because they're a state, we can attack their "stateness." Once we've taken away all of their land they will cease to exist as a state. Their military tactics are more conventional which is why they were initially so successful, particularly in northern Iraq. AQ is an old-fashioned terrorist outfit and has to be approached purely from a counter terror perspective. The Taliban is more a regional movement than anything and haven't shown any desire to expand.
Hi Colonel Warren, thank you for your service and taking the time to answer some questions. While I understand the epicenter of the ISIS organization is located in Syria, do you think that this war needs to expand even more to have greater coverage over areas like northern Africa in order to target affiliate groups such as Boko Haram? Also, do you expect to see an increase in terrorism-related violence due to the growing competition/rivalry between Al-Qaeda and ISIS for who can be the most dominant on the world stage?
Thank you for your time,
That's an interesting question and the answer has two parts. Groups such as Boko Haram are legitimate terrorists that need to be dealt with, some of them may even want to cause terror in the west. But just because Boko Haram puts on an ISIL t-shirt, doesn't make them ISIL.
We know ISIL wants to expand and they have got to be stopped. They want to kill us, and they want to do it in our homeland. It's important that we fight the enemy in his castle so that we don't have to fight him in ours. But breaking their back here in Iraq and Syria really has to be our first priority.
Will the b52's take over alot more of the bombings now they they have arrived?
The B52, besides being a great band, is a precision strike platform. It replaced the B1 aircraft and is simply another arrow in our quiver.
What can an average American do to help stop ISIS/ISIL/Daesh?
EDIT: ummmmm guys.....WHY THE HELL DID THIS GET A DOWNVOTE?
God damn you punks if you don't love America. You fuckin terrorists.
I think the first the average American can do to help is to understand what we’re up against. This is a group of terrorists who want to harm us. They’ve conducted 40 attacks in 21 different countries and caused a thousand casualties since January of 2015. This is a real threat. They are using social media to radicalize and inspire lone wolf attacks. Don’t let this happen in your neighborhood.